Learn by deciding
Make choices under uncertainty, see how other players respond, and examine the outcomes together in class.
Classroom games in rivalry, market entry, innovation, and diversification.
For students
Your instructor will give you a five-character code. Enter it below to join anonymously.
The game assigns a random alias. Do not enter your name, username, email, or student ID. Participation credit is recorded separately through the course Qualtrics survey; game choices are not linked to that survey.
You run one of six airlines on the same route. Every round, all six secretly choose how many seats to fly. More seats can capture business, but total production lowers the price for everyone.
M is demand. A larger M supports a higher price. M may change between rounds, so check it before every decision. Every seat costs 10; if price falls below 10, each additional seat loses money.
Example with M = 100 and six airlines: you plus five rivals. “Rivals” is their combined production.
| Scenario | You | 5 rivals | Price | Your profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moderate schedules | 13 | 65 | 22 | 156 |
| You expand | 20 | 65 | 15 | 100 |
| Everyone expands | 20 | 100 | 0 | −200 |
| Everyone holds back | 10 | 50 | 40 | 300 |
1. Predict the five rivals’ combined production. 2. Choose your own production. 3. Submit both; you may revise until the instructor closes the round. Your prediction does not affect profit.
There is no announced final round. If you miss a round, your previous quantity is used and marked * in your history. A computer airline fills any empty seat and cannot observe current choices. Your route opponents remain the same.
You have one aircraft. Stay out and receive the guaranteed leasing payoff, or enter and compete with everyone else who enters.
Stage 1 — Entry. You and your rivals secretly choose enter or stay out and predict, from a dropdown, the total number entering. Stage 2 — Competition. Everyone sees exactly how many entered and stayed out. Entrants then choose quantities; outsiders receive the guaranteed payoff.
M is demand and may change, while the guaranteed payoff remains fixed. Few entrants may make entering attractive; many entrants intensify competition and can make the guaranteed alternative better.
1. Predict the total entrants, including yourself if you enter. 2. Choose enter or stay out. 3. If you entered, predict rivals’ combined production and choose your quantity.
There is no announced final round. Missing entry repeats your previous choice (round 1: stay out). Missing quantity repeats your previous quantity. A computer airline fills any empty seat and cannot observe current choices. Predictions do not affect payoffs.
You're an airline CEO with an enviable position: an established route with steady demand, shared with a handful of rivals. But there's another market out there — a new route that today looks laughably small... and is growing every round. Meanwhile, whispers say your legacy market may fade. Every screen shows both markets' M every round. Watch them.
Stage 1 — Board meeting. If you're still in the legacy market, decide: stay, or switch to the new market. Switching costs a one-time fleet conversion fee (shown on screen) and is irreversible — there's no going back. Stage 2 — Competition. You learn how many firms are in each market, then everyone picks quantities. Each market has its own price:
Here's the twist: in the legacy market your unit cost is a comfortable 10. In the new market you start clumsy — cost 14 — but it falls by 2 every round you operate there (down to a floor of 8). Experience compounds. The airlines that switch early eat losses while learning… and end up with the lowest costs in a growing market.
So the real question every round: is a fat share of a fading market worth more than a hard apprenticeship in a growing one? And — how many of your rivals are about to make the same jump you're considering?
Miss the board meeting and you stay put (switching is never automatic). Miss the quantity stage and your previous quantity is reused (marked *). Empty seats are computer airlines using varied strategies; like students, they make both market choices and forecasts. Nobody sees your current move.
Each round we'll ask for predictions — how many firms will be in the new market, and the sum of your competitors' quantities. Predictions do not impact your profit. There's an award for the best forecaster.
Your team is searching for a high-performing six-part product. Each component has options A–C. Submit a complete configuration and receive evidence from the market.
Decomposed search teams work through three two-component modules and may revise only one module per trial; they receive component-level diagnostics. Integrated search teams may revise the full system; on integral problems they receive signals about cross-module compatibility.
Some products are modular: improving one module does not disturb another. Others are integral: choices that look good alone can be poor together. Your task is to discover a strong design without knowing which other teams face different problems or protocols.
Congratulations on the promotion — you now run the holding company. Every round you allocate 100 of capital across four divisions: Domestic airline and International airline (two flavors of the same competence), a Hotel chain, and Air freight. Your job is not to run routes. Your job is to put money where it earns the most.
Three forces move it. Shocks: every industry has good and bad rounds (the two airline divisions boom and bust together; hotels and freight move on their own). Crowding: the more capital everyone in your economy pours into an industry, the lower the return per unit for all of it — hot industries stop being hot precisely because everyone noticed. Base return is the same across industries, so there is no permanently "best" one.
Synergy: the two airline divisions share pilots, gates, and know-how — invest at least 10 in both and your HQ converts the smaller stake into a synergy bonus at the rate shown on your decision screen. HQ overhead: every additional division you actively run (10+ invested) makes headquarters more bureaucratic — the coordination tax grows with the square of your division count, using the rate shown on your decision screen. Running one division costs nothing extra; running all four costs plenty, every round.
So: focus and ride the shocks? Pair the airlines for synergy? Spread wide and sleep well? Every choice is a bet — and everyone else's choices move your returns.
Miss a round and your previous allocation is reused (round 1 default: 25 in each). Empty seats are computer investors who chase last round's returns — yes, they herd; plan accordingly. Each round we'll ask one prediction: which industry will attract the most total capital in your economy. It does not impact your profit, and there's an award for the best crowd-reader.
The stable phase is complete. Make your prediction before the new demand level is revealed.
Demand may move either way. Answer both, thinking about what happens after the other airlines have reacted.
| Rd | M | You | Rivals | Price | Profit | Total |
|---|